With the help of a powerful wave of anti-incumbency sentiment, UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath prevailed in a hotly contested by-election in which both the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) invested substantial sums of money and mounted vigorous campaigns.
Before the next local body and assembly elections, the UDF’s decisive victory in the Nilambur Assembly bypoll has established a strong precedent. This may be the last by-election of the current assembly term because the LDF now controls the state. Anti-Incumbency
The seats in Thrikkakara, Puthuppally, Palakkad, and Chelakkara were held by the UDF and LDF, respectively, but Nilambur proved to be a game-changer when the UDF took the seat away from the LDF.
M. Swaraj was one of the LDF’s strongest candidates, but he was unable to sway voters in favour of the ruling coalition in this crucial contest. The LDF was unable to withstand the surge of dissatisfaction among Nilambur voters despite a well-publicised campaign supported by more than a dozen ministers and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
Local problems like the growing human-animal conflict, which had a big impact on hill farmers, and continuous fights with striking ASHA workers—who even ran anti-Swaraj campaigns in Nilambur—were the main causes of this anti-incumbency feeling.
Due to the UDF’s backing from the Welfare Party of India (WPI), the LDF’s attempt to categorise it as communal failed. The LDF’s own break with Jamaat-e-Islami in 2019 gave rise to this strategy, which did not sit well with voters.
The UDF’s victory was advantageous to leaders such as VD Satheesan and KPCC President K. Sudhakaran (Sunny Joseph). Satheesan’s choice to deny P.V. Anwar admission into the UDF was very advantageous. Satheesan’s standing has been reinforced by the Nilambur outcome, while Joseph’s standing inside the party has increased.
Anti-Incumbency It’s interesting to note that P.V. Anwar, whose resignation had precipitated the by-election, was nevertheless able to collect about 20,000 votes, demonstrating his continued power in Nilambur. The UDF admits that his vote count was substantial enough to possibly influence the result, even if he attributed his vote share to anti-Pinarayi anger.
Given that there would be two significant elections in the upcoming year, Anwar now seems keen to return to the UDF after seeing that his political clout is largely restricted to Nilambur. UDF leaders are still hesitant to accept his return, though.
The KPCC President responded diplomatically when questioned about Anwar’s possible re-entry: “The correct key can open any locked door.” Anti-Incumbency