Some may ask if this is a holdover from 2003.
The United Kingdom backed the United States in a contentious military operation against Iraq back in 2003. The goal was to eliminate Iraq’s so-called arsenal of “weapons of mass destruction”, most of which had actually been dismantled years earlier.
Whatever happens in the Middle East will very certainly have an impact on the UK, which is America’s closest, albeit weakest, friend. What role might the UK be expected to take on if Donald Trump decides to deploy U.S. military support to aid Israel in shutting down Iran’s nuclear ambitions?
The Position of the United Kingdom
To begin with, Britain is not at all a major actor in this Israeli-Iranian conflict. De-escalation has been demanded by the UK and other G7 allies. However, Israel is unlikely to take notice, as it seems to have already made up its mind—especially given the recent strain in UK-Israel relations after Britain, along with several other Western countries, including the UK, imposed sanctions on two Israeli cabinet ministers over accusations that they fuelled violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.
Israel seems to have decided that negotiation is no longer an option and that military action against Iran’s alleged nuclear programme is now necessary. (Israel is said to have shown blatant disrespect for the UK by not alerting Britain before attacking Iran because it considered the UK to be “an unreliable partner”.)
The Diplomatic Role of the UK
The UK still has a diplomatic role to play while being marginalised, particularly in conjunction with European partners who contributed to the draughting of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). Before Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the accord in 2018, this agreement had brought about UN inspections of Iranian facilities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
Currently meeting with his American counterpart in Washington, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy will go to Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday to participate in talks with French, German, and EU diplomats about re-engaging with Iran.
Key Military Resources in the Area
Diego Garcia
Despite its diminutive size, this tiny tropical island in the Indian Ocean, which is jointly controlled by the United States and the United Kingdom and leased from neighbouring Mauritius, has significant strategic value. It is roughly 2,300 miles (3,700 km) from Iran and might serve as a base for B-2 Spirit stealth bombers operated by the U.S. Air Force.
Only these bombers are equipped to transport the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound (13.6-tonne) monster that is sometimes called a “bunker-buster”. This week, retired U.S. General David Petraeus even referred to it as a “mountain-buster.” It is thought to be the only weapon strong enough to enter Iran’s nuclear enrichment plant, Fordow, which is hidden deep underground.
The United Kingdom must provide its consent before the United States may utilise Diego Garcia for such an operation. According to reports, UK Attorney General Richard Hermer has recommended that in order for any British military involvement to remain within the law, it must be absolutely defensive. Nevertheless, from their base in Missouri, B-2 bombers can travel roughly 7,000 miles, which is sufficient to reach Iran straight. Theoretically, they could hit Fordow without using Diego Garcia at all if they refuelled in midair.
Cyprus
On this Mediterranean island, the UK holds two key strategic assets: A large number of RAF Typhoon jets are now stationed at RAF Akrotiri. Part of the UK’s Sovereign Base Area in Cyprus, Ayios Nikolaos is a top-secret listening post for signals intelligence situated atop a mountain.
Cyprus has long served as a base for the British military’s “Spearhead Battalion”, a force that may be quickly deployed to the Middle East in case of need. As part of “Operation Shader”, RAF Typhoons are already engaged in surveillance and sporadic airstrikes against sites affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.
British fighter jets assisted in taking down Iranian drones that were en route to Israel during a brief clash between Israel and Iran last year. But according to a recent BBC interview, no such assistance has been asked for or provided in the current circumstance.
The Gulf
From the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq “Tanker War”, when mines were first placed and the UK established its “Armilla Patrol”, the Royal Navy has played a minor but crucial role in preventing naval mines from being placed in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fifth Fleet of the U.S. Navy is headquartered in Bahrain, where Royal Navy minehunters have been stationed. Ironically, British aid has been highly welcomed because the United States are ill-prepared to cope with mines.
However, the Royal Navy’s presence in the area is steadily declining, and the UK’s minehunter ships are approaching the end of their useful lives. This has led to a sobering conclusion: Iran may have a huge impact if it decided to shut the Strait of Hormuz, which is where 20–30% of the world’s oil supply flows.
According to the Ministry of Defence, the Royal Navy’s minehunter HMS Middleton is currently deployed in the Gulf. Nevertheless, they stated, “Royal Navy ships in the Gulf are at sea and have not yet been reassigned for warfighting operations.”
In addition, the UK has a port facility in Duqm, Oman, and a limited military presence in Iraq (around 100 soldiers).
Potential Retaliation from Iran
Iran has made it clear time and time again that it will strike back at any country that strikes it or is thought to be aiding such an attack. These retaliations, which are frequently called “responses”, would probably target American Navy ships at sea as well as American bases in the area.
Britain would most likely be included in Iran’s retaliatory measures if the UK permits the United States to use Diego Garcia as a base for hitting Iran’s Fordow complex.
Practically speaking, that might entail attacking RAF Akrotiri with ballistic missiles. However, domestic security services such as MI5 would also be on high alert for any hostile actions by Iran back in the UK, including arson or sabotage that might be carried out through criminal networks.